Effect Fermenting After PLA Military Exercises
By Lo Ching-sheng
China Times, October 8, 2022
In early August this year, mainland China carried out military exercises around Taiwan versus the visit of Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the United States House of Representatives. At that time, the author pointed out that the mainland’s "Military Exercise Around Taiwan" aimed to send a message to the United States, signifying U.S.-China strategic dialogue, with far-reaching implications. In fact, there were new adjustments related to U.S. strategic layout toward Taiwan’s security.
First, the United States originally judged that the mainland’s “script” of using force against Taiwan was an amphibious landing, launching lightning attack to occupy the island. Due to the disparity in military power between Taipei and Beijing, the anti-landing operation of Taiwan’s military would fail. The United States thus asked Taiwan to switch to “asymmetric warfare.” The U.S. Fifth Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) was deployed to Taiwan to teach special operation skills for its armed forces. The voice of "All-Out Defense" suddenly became very high-pitched as well. This has led to doubts in the strategic circles that the United States intends to "Ukrainize" Taiwan.
In the wake of Chinese military exercises, the general view in the United States is that mainland China will adopt a blockade. In late August, the New York Times published a special analysis, arguing that Beijing would try to implement a comprehensive blockade strategy, cut off Taiwan’s external links at the physical, economic and even digital levels, and force Taipei to make concessions, paving the way for subsequent broader military operations.
The blockade is an operation to isolate the island. Taiwan is worried that energy and food cannot get in, while foreign countries are concerned that supply chain goods cannot get out. Therefore, the United States has a sense of crisis about its dependence on Taiwan for cutting-edge chips.
Relying on Taiwan for cutting-edge chips threatens American national security. In June of this year, Mr. Eric Schmidt, former chief executive of Google and Professor Graham Allison jointly wrote a letter for the Wall Street Journal, stating that American cutting-edge chips are completely dependent on Taiwan, and national security of the United States will be placed at risk. On July 20, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo indicated in an interview with CNBC that 90 percent of leading-edge chips in the United States are purchased from Taiwan, which has created a national security risk.
The situation became different after the "Military Exercise Around Taiwan” by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The exercise is considered a kind of strategic dialogue. The PLA's message to the United States may include the following:
“Have you ever thought that we would blockade the island without landing, and are the asymmetric weapons you provided to Taiwan still useful? What would happen if there were no Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) cutting-edge chips?”
But the key is that the PLA must have the capability to lock down Taiwan. Whether the PLA has such capability requires professional assessment. On September 19, Admiral Karl Thomas, commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the Chinese navy is capable of blockading Taiwan. Now that the U.S. military has certified the PLA’s capability, the sense of crisis for cutting-edge chips has thus become urgent.
On September 22, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen stated that Taiwan has become the only source of advanced semiconductors in the world, posing a risk to American national security. "The United States and other countries need a safe and reliable semiconductor supply chain," she indicated. On September 30, Secretary Raimondo spoke more plainly in a dialogue hosted by the Atlantic Council. She said: "The most cutting-edge chip technology has to be in America. It’s not now. It's in Taiwan.” This shows that the U.S. administration is determined to transfer cutting-edge chip technology to the United States.
Therefore, the United States will seek to transfer Taiwan's cutting-edge chip technology to America or other reliable allies. For Taiwan, as a precaution, it is necessary to think about how to ensure the security of the island without the protection of TSMC? The national security authorities cannot leave the issue to the next government.
In terms of military strategy, the United States also responded to the PLA's military exercise, but the U.S. side did not give up the script relating to the PLA's operations to occupy Taiwan. And blockade is added to the scenarios.
A recent New York Times report titled "U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan into Giant Weapons Depot" quoted current and former officials as saying that mainland China may use the encirclement as a prelude to launch attack, and Taiwan will have to stand on its own until the U.S. or other countries intervene. Efforts are being stepped up to build a huge weapons stockpile on the island.
The United States may have wishful thinking about the PLA's use of force. Although blockade may be a prelude, it could also be the main tune. If the PLA besieged the island, cutting off food and energy supplies, the weapons stockpiles for asymmetric warfare would not withstand the hunger of the people.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, expressed confidence that if mainland China imposes a naval blockade on Taiwan, the U.S. and its allies have the ability to break it. This is only half right. If the United States only wants to deliver specific weapons and equipment or transport a few people, it is certainly not a problem. But it will be a serious problem for a civilian fleet to transport a large amount of food and energy to Taiwan.
Even if a civilian fleet is willing to run the risk, the Taiwan government will pay a heavy price. If the U.S. escort fleet leads the convoy to break through the blockade, it will have to bet on whether or not the PLA will open fire. Will the PLA want to fight the U.S. military?
The reasonable answer is probably yes. The PLA is getting closer to the strength of the U.S. military. In order to solve the Taiwan issue, the PLA eventually will have to fight the U.S. military. As long as the U.S. military is defeated, the Taiwan issue will be resolved naturally.
Most military scholars know that the current PLA buildup, such as aircraft carriers, missile submarines, 055 naval cruisers, J-20, H-20... is all directed at the U.S. military. However, the United States rarely assumes the PLA’s script to challenge the U.S. military by using Taiwan as a bait.
Therefore, when the United States asked Taiwan to build a large number of bomb-resistant weapons depots, senior national security officials and experts from defense think tanks should calculate how long can Taiwan's food, natural gas, gasoline... stocks last? To prepare for war, is it necessary to call on the people to increase their food storage? National security officials should not just follow the pace of the United States, but should also have more forward thinking.
The author is executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20221008000021-262110